Immigration and Chavez.

Two immigration bills will enter the Congressional caucus for compromise this week. If the House version (security and felony status) rules over the Senate version (security + worker program), Mexico is likely to join Chavez, Castro, and Morales, in the populist, leftist, anti-American surge in Latin America. If the Senate version rules, and illegals are given a path to legalization, the pro-American PAN party of Vicente Fox is likely to win, and the insane Chavistas may be stopped, and reversed.

Is it that dramatic? Absolutely. Enrique Calderon, the PAN candidate has just passed the crazy Chavista candidate, Manuel Lopez-Obrador, in the polls. Obrador led in the polling for two straight years. The reason for the surge is a smart campaign linking Obrador to Chavez, who most non-Venezuelans despise.

If the Senate version of the bill rules, Vicente Fox and the PAN party will take credit. If the House version rules, the PAN will take the blame. Considering this is the most talked about political topic in a political country (Mexico), this will absolutely tilt the polls.

Bottom line: the House version is a silly, idealistic, pipe-dream. The Senate version is unworkable, but great rhetoric. As I've said many times, the biggest problem with Republicans is a lack of rhetorical flair (i.e. sweet nothings to people who don't care about facts anyway... most voters). If we can push this Senate version through, a rational enforcement and legalization regime may emerge. Either way, it would be a significant turning point as per the authoritarianism and anti-Americanism of Chavez, Castro, and Morales.

The polling data in Mexico and Peru are beginning to turn in our direction. Let's not ruin it by passing a stupid, angry, racists bill that won't work and will piss off most of our neighbors needlessly. Call your congressman and tell her/him that you support the Senate version.

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