Chriac's brass ones: update 1

The French have begun to react to their President's nuclear threat towards Iran. Seems like the analysts agree with my thoughts yeaterday, though they are far more learned and insiteful than I. I am intrigued with the possibility that this may signal a reemergence of the Atlantic alliance, and that angle has not yet gotten too much coverage, but look for it over the next few days as the leading analysts broaden their view of this event.

If the Iranians succeed in getting nuclear arms, the fact that they may drive the West back into alliance will have been worth it. The Pakistanis and N. Koreans have nukes. The Iranians are in between those two countries in terms of the loopy-reckless index. It will be an extrodinarily bad thing, but the Iranians are clever, they will not outfit Hizbullah with one of their few nukes. They intend to use their nukes much as the Koreans are: as insurance for their regime and as a bargaining chip in any sort of trade and support negotiations; they do not intend to use it as an actual weapon, as that would be national suicide.

If we assume an Iranian nuke will be used only in retaliation (not positive, but a solid guess), and we assume that the realization both that bad things happen in the world when we are not willing to be aggressive, and that good things happen when we all put our differences aside and form a united front, we can see a scenario wherein the West is reunited on a broad range of issues: trade, military intervention, and diplomacy.

I assert that a nuclear Iran is worth a reunion of the Western alliance.

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