Hamas = honesty over corrupt but pleasing rhetoric

The latest polling numbers show that the Palestinians voted for less corruption, rather than ideology. Two thirds of Palestinians completely disagree with Hamas on their two main foreign policy goals: the destruction of Israel and Islamization.

While the average Palestinian agrees with the goals of Fatah, the fact that Fatah has stolen 90.5% of the $7 billion in aid given to it since 1993, means that the Palestinians had given up on Fatah structurally, not ideologically.

Going forward, Hamas will likely focus on domestic issues and on the Israeli impact on those domestic issues: healthcare, jobs, and schooling. So what does this mean for the future? It depends on Hamas' pragmatism.

They will likely do well on healthcare, as there is no real idological demension to it. The cloud on the horizon is that with so many nations saying they will no longer offer aid to a government led by a party who advocates the destruction of Israel via terrorist attacks on civilians, combined with Hamas' refusal to change their charter advocation the destruction of Israel, means Hamas may not have enough money to provide decent healthcare. Likely outcome: donors will step forward to offer funds for healthcare and Hamas will be more successful than Fatah.

In jobs, there isn't a heck of a lot they can do. Israel won't even speak to a Hamas led government (why? Just because they like to kill Israeli babies?). Joblessness in the Palestinian territories was caused largely by the second Intifada, and the resulting border closures to Israel, where many Palestinians work. The only other option would be to open more trade with other Muslim countries, but the Palestinians don't have much to offer and with less discretionary aid in the government, they can't buy much. Their homeland of Jordan doesn't offer much in the way of economic opportunity.

In education lies the most volitile possibility. Hamas is an Islamic fundamentalist organization. They like religion more than education, and, like so many other Arab-Muslim countries, they think the two are interchangeable. Look for more madrassas than schools. Look for the separation of male and female students. Look for pissed-off Palestinian moderates (i.e. 66% of the country).

In general, we can expect a more competent, less corrput government that will throughly piss off the country as it tries to turn Palestine into Talabania.

I predict two years of Hamas rule which teaches Fatah to can it's aging revolutionary thieves, and brings in a new generation of well-educated tecnocrats with the moderate outlook favored by the populace. If Hamas doesn't try to entrench themselves like despots, Fatah will be back and better than ever in two years.

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