The architect of Containment dies at 101. TURMENISTAN may be next on the terrorist hit list.
George Kennan died today. Kennan was the man who created the concept and policy of containment that kept the world from WWIII and ensured a capitalist victory in the cold war. His idea was oulined in a single memo to the President in 1946 called "The Long Telegram".
Incidentally, his ideas are the driving force behind our policy on North Korea, and interestingly in Iran.
Look at this map (I command you). Looking at the toppling of Iraq in a geographic context, Iran is now surrounded by Turkey (an American ally), Afghanistan (an American ally), Iraq (well, you know...), Azerbijian and Armenia (erstwhile allies, somewhat ungoverned), and Turkmenistan.
Turkmenistan is an interesting case. Ruled by a pretty harsh but clever dictator, Saparmurat Niyazov who has renamed January after himself, and April after his mother (no, not a joke), this gas rich country could well be the focus of intense Russian-American diplomacy in the coming months.
Violence is unlikely, but with the recent revelation that nuclear capable cruise missiles were smuggled from Ukraine to Iran I think stepped up patrols of the Black Sea, along with a diplomatic push for sealing the borders between Trukmenistan and Iran are likely.
Sealing the border with Turkmenistan would provide an economic stranglehold for local trade with Iran, akin to our attempts (failed) to strangle Castro.
Considering we've already got pretty strict sanctions in place agianst Iran, the only way to hurt them more is to encourage others to restrict trade as well.
BTW, it's NOT I ran, it's Ir-on.
posted by niko @ 10:35 AM
5 Comments:
So, where do you stand on the controversy between two ways of altering the behavior of a state (cuba, Iran, China) -- isolate and hurt, or bring into the mainstream by trade? Our behavior has not been consistent, and alters mostly according to whether or not our economic interest is important. Personally, I lean toward involvement with focused areas of prohibition. Like, allow white slaves but forbid bombs.
i've heard of many stans, but not turmenistan. learn something new every day
As with everything, it depends upon the circumstances. When a state is somewhat integrated and dependent upon trade, sanctions can work. In cases such as Mynmar, where the economy is basically a subsistence economy, not dependent upon trade, sanctions are symbolic.
Turmenistan is a former Soviet republic, founded by Stan Smith, who was a man who really enjoyed Thanksgiving. He also had good sneakers.
Interesting article, added his blog to Favorites
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